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Weekly Economic Summary - July 23, 2010
OVERVIEW ~ July 12 through 16 ~ The optimism that pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) higher through Thursday, July 15, lost whatever power it had by Friday, July 16, when it fell more than 266 points to 10097.90. As the DJIA lost ground, interest rates also edged lower. The 10-year Treasury note, which began the week at 3.24%, fell to 2.94% at the close of the week; the HSH average 30-year mortgage rate (which includes jumbo rates) held at 4.98%; and the Freddie Mac average rate edged down to 4.57%. And, indicative of slackening confidence in our nation’s economic recovery, the dollar lost ground against the euro all week.
FOCUS ~ Analysts had been suggesting the stock markets would benefit from higher corporate earnings reports, but the belief (or, at least, hope) that improving corporate earnings data would be announced last week faded by Friday.
Instead of reigniting the markets with good news about earnings and, indeed, proving that the markets had overreacted to increased worries about the economic recovery, corporate earnings and corporate revenue reports were mostly lower than expected. By the end of Friday, all thirty stocks in the DJIA had lost value.
This can be read, in part, as a decline in confidence in stocks. Not surprisingly, the indicators that suggest what is happening in the real estate market are similarly weak. The purchase money loan applications component of the Mortgage Bankers Association indices of mortgage applications fell another 3.1% to 163.3, down 36.9% from a year ago. And the July National Association of Home Builders Market Index, measuring the relative optimism (and pessimism) among builders about the new-home market, was down 12.5% from the Association’s June reading, and 17.6% from its year-ago reading.
We have seen, on a nearly weekly basis, the inclination of this market to turn around, rising when analysts were most certain that it would continue falling, and falling when it seemed certain to rise.
The week does demonstrate one thing, however. When market conditions weaken, interest rates decline still more. Home (and other) financing simply becomes more affordable, and that fact continues to support the markets in this uncertain time.
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